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Reliability tell

Ghost Matches

Games where a player was statistically invisible.

Formula

appearances WHERE rating < 6.5 AND goal_contributions = 0 AND minutes >= 30

Strict definition catches games where someone played enough to matter but did nothing measurable. We track Ghost-rate = ghosts ÷ total appearances. The cleanest variance predictor in football.

How to read the number

<10% Iron reliable
10–25% Standard
25–40% Volatile
>40% Lottery ticket

What it's good for

  • Filter fantasy assets by week-to-week reliability
  • Spot 'reliable' picks who are actually torching managers
  • Compare players with similar PPG but different ghost-rates

Real-world example

Player A: 8.5 fantasy PPG, 11% ghost-rate. Player B: 8.5 fantasy PPG, 38%. Pick A.

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