Discipline model

Card Forecast

Hybrid Poisson model for yellows and reds.

Formula

P(yellow) = Poisson(λ = ref_avg × team_aggression × opp_aggression)

Combines referee historical card rate, team's average yellows received, and opponent's average aggression — fed through a Poisson distribution. Validated on ~400 matches with ≤0.3 card mean error.

How to read the number

4.5+ E[cards] Powder keg

3.0–4.5 Spicy

1.5–3.0 Standard

<1.5 Tame

What it's good for

Card markets value-hunting
Identify referee tendencies
Predict suspension risk

Real-world example

Atletico vs Madrid: E[cards] 5.2 (referee 3.8 baseline, both teams above league avg).

Explore other metrics

22 in total — open Metrics Lab for the grid.

Clutch Index

How much a player over-performs their baseline in high-pressure moments.

Hot Hand

Rolling z-score of goal contributions over last 5 matches vs season baseline.

Ghost Matches

Games where a player was statistically invisible.

Iron Index

Tackles + interceptions + clearances per 90, weighted by concession rate.

Travel Warrior

Performance delta on the road vs at home.

Sniper Score

Shot quality beyond xG — actual conversion adjusted for chance difficulty.

See all 22 →

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