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Single-player risk

Star Dependency

Team performance delta with vs without their top contributor.

Formula

(team_xG_per_match_with_star - without_star) / with_star

Quantifies how much a team's output collapses when their top contributor is unavailable. High dependency = fragile squad.

How to read the number

30%+ drop Severely dependent
15–30% High dependency
5–15% Healthy
<5% Deep squad

What it's good for

  • Squad depth scouting
  • Risk assessment for injury-prone star players
  • Predict drop-off when key player sold

Real-world example

PSG without Mbappé 2023-24: 28% xG drop. Strong fragility signal.

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